3 priežastys, kodėl „Ethereum“ kaina vis atsisako 1,300 USD lygio

Eteris (ETH) rallied 11.3% between Nov. 28 and Dec. 5, peaking at $1,300 before facing a 4.6% rejection. The $1,300 resistance level has been holding ground for twenty-six days and is the most likely explanation for the correction to $1,240 on Dec. 6. 

So from one side, traders are relieved that Ether is trading 16% above the $1,070 low reached on Nov. 22, but it must be frustrating to fail at the same level the entire week. In addition to the price rejection, investors’ mood worsened after three members of the United States Senate reportedly requested information from Silvergate Bank regarding its relationship with FTX.

The lawmakers raised questions after “reports suggesting that Silvergate facilitated the transfer of FTX customer funds to Alameda” and gave the bank until Dec. 19 to issue a response.

On Dec. 5, NBC News reported that Silvergate claimed to be a “victim” of FTX’s and Alameda Research’s “apparent misuse of customer assets and other lapses of judgment.”

Newsflow remained negative after the Financial Times reported that the United Kingdom Treasury is finalizing some guidelines to restrict cryptocurrency sales from abroad. The changes would enable the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to monitor the crypto companies’ operations in the region. The guidelines are being prepared as a part of the financial services and markets bill.

Investors are afraid that Ether could lose the $1,200 support, but as highlighted by trader CashMontee, the S&P 500 stock market index will be the key — but for now, “market too bullish.”

nah market too bullish I think. As long as spx stays up so does crypto. Monthly level at 1205 that i think will be tagged after but we didn’t take enough liquidity on eth yet to fall back down but of course could be wrong

— CashMontee (@CashMontee) Gruodis 5, 2022

Pažvelkime Eterio dariniai data to understand if the bearish newsflow has impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.

Slight uptick in bearish demand for ETH futures’ leverage

Mažmeniniai prekybininkai paprastai vengia ketvirčio ateities sandorių dėl kainų skirtumo nuo neatidėliotinų rinkų. Tuo tarpu profesionalūs prekybininkai teikia pirmenybę šioms priemonėms, nes jos neleidžia svyruoti finansavimo normoms a neterminuota ateities sutartis.

Dviejų mėnesių ateities sandorių metinė premija turėtų būti nuo +4% iki +8% sveikose rinkose, kad būtų padengtos išlaidos ir susijusi rizika. Taigi, kai ateities sandoriais prekiaujama su nuolaida, palyginti su įprastomis neatidėliotinomis prekėmis, tai rodo sverto pirkėjų nepasitikėjimą – tai kritinis rodiklis.

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. So, bears can celebrate that the indicator is far from the neutral 0% to 4% premium, but that does not mean traders expect an immediate adverse price action.

Dėl šios priežasties prekybininkai turėtų analizuoti Eterio opcionų rinkos neįtraukti ateities sandorių priemonei būdingų išorinių veiksnių.

Options traders are getting comfortable with the downside risks

25 % delta pakreipimas yra akivaizdus ženklas, kai rinkos formuotojai ir arbitražo stalai per daug apmokestina už apsaugą nuo apverstų ar neigiamų padarinių.

Meškų rinkose opcionų investuotojai suteikia didesnes tikimybes, kad kaina nukris, todėl pakreipimo rodiklis pakils virš 10%. Kita vertus, pakilusios rinkos linkusios nukrypti nuo -10%, o tai reiškia, kad kritimo pardavimo opcionai yra diskontuojami.

The delta skew has stabilized in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable with downside risks.

Susiję: Ethereum „2020 m. kovo mėn.“ fraktalų užuominos kainos apačioje – tačiau ETH lokiai prognozuoja 50 proc.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 12%, whales and market makers are getting closer to a neutral sentiment for Ether. Ultimately, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $1,200 support retest is the natural course for ETH.

The answer might as well be hidden under the macroeconomic calendar ahead, which includes the EuroZone’s and Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Dec. 7 and the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Dec. 13.

Currently, the odds favor Ether bears because the newsflow implies that the possibility of stricter regulation is weighing down the market.