Traders might rejoice now that Bitcoin price ventured above $17,400, but 27 long days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) last breached the $17,250 resistance.
On December 13, after a two-week-long lateral movement, Bitcoin posted a 6.5% rally toward $18,000 and even though the current movement still lacks strength, traders believe that a retest of the $18,250 resistance remains possible.
To start the week, the S&P 500 index rose to its highest level in 26 days on Jan. 9. Weak economic data had previously fueled investors’ expectation of slower interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Jan. 12 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could lend some credence to this expectation.
On Jan. 6, German retail sales data showed a 5.9% year-on-year contraction took place in November. In the U.S., economic activity in the services sector contracted in December after 30 consecutive months of growth. The Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) reading was 49.6%, and readings below 50% typically point toward a weakening economy.
Investors anxiously wait for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Jan. 12, which is more likely to dictate whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 in early February. Economists expect the report to show inflation increased by 6.6% in the 12 months to December, so a weaker-than-consensus CPI could further boost markets’ performance.
Still, the impacts of a year-long bear market continue to play out as digital asset manager Osprey Funds reportedly laid off most of its staff during the second half of 2022. The investment company offers crypto products for its accredited investors’ brokerage accounts, including a trust.
Analysts should focus on Bitcoin dariniai to understand if the recent positive price action has finally turned crypto investors’ sentiment positive.
The futures premium shows sentiment is slowly improving
Mažmeniniai prekybininkai paprastai vengia ketvirčio ateities sandorių dėl kainų skirtumo nuo neatidėliotinų rinkų. Tuo tarpu profesionalūs prekybininkai teikia pirmenybę šioms priemonėms, nes jos neleidžia svyruoti finansavimo normoms a neterminuota ateities sutartis.
Dviejų mėnesių ateities sandorių metinė premija turėtų būti nuo +4% iki +8% sveikose rinkose, kad būtų padengtos išlaidos ir susijusi rizika. Taigi, kai ateities sandoriai prekiauja žemiau tokio diapazono, tai rodo sverto pirkėjų nepasitikėjimą – paprastai tai yra kritinis rodiklis.
The above chart shows positive momentum for the Bitcoin futures premium, which recovered from a 3% discount on Dec. 30 to the current positive 1%. Although it is still in the neutral-to-bearish area, it represents less pessimism versus Dec. 13, before Bitcoin price pumped to $18,000. However, the demand for leverage longs at $17,000 is shy according to the metric.
Before jumping to conclusions, traders should also analyze Bitcoin opcionų rinkos neįtraukti ateities sandorių priemonei būdingų išorinių veiksnių.
Options are pricing similar risks for upside and downside
25 % delta pakreipimas yra akivaizdus ženklas, kai rinkos formuotojai ir arbitražo stalai per daug apmokestina už apsaugą nuo apverstų ar neigiamų padarinių.
Meškų rinkose opcionų investuotojai suteikia didesnes tikimybes, kad kaina nukris, todėl pakreipimo rodiklis pakils virš 10%. Kita vertus, pakilusios rinkos linkusios nukrypti nuo -10%, o tai reiškia, kad kritimo pardavimo opcionai yra diskontuojami.
The delta skew bottomed at 8% on Jan. 9, signaling that options traders are pricing similar risks for upside and downside. More importantly, the current level is the lowest since Nov. 8, or since the FTX exchange implosion.
Even if there’s no appetite for leverage longs using Bitcoin futures, the whales and market makers trading options are getting more comfortable with $17,000 becoming support.
Although there is no evidence that a pump to $18,250 is in the making, at least traders are less risk-averse, according to derivatives data.
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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-suggests-a-btc-price-pump-above-18k-won-t-be-easy