Rejoice! The bear market might be over. That’s the main thesis behind July’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report. “Because bitcoin’s price did not rise parabolically during the 2021 bull market, its bear market correction could be over,” ARK reasons. And it makes sense, the numbers seem to suggest it, and it feels like it. However, are we fooling ourselves? Is ARK’s reasoning wishful thinking? Let’s examine the data and see what it tells us.
First of all, “bitcoin closed the month of July up 16.6%, rising from $19,965 to $23,325, its most significant gain since October 2021.” So far, so good. Can we declare that the bear market correction is over, though? Well, “the likelihood of touching its delta cost basis has diminished, bitcoin’s downside risk in a bear market technically stands at its delta cost basis, currently $13,890.” This number seems far away. Maybe bitcoin is slowly getting out of its slum.
“Bitcoin has corrected 72% relative to its alltime high. Although this drawdown is consistent with intracyclical corrections, like the COVID collapse in 2020, bitcoin usually finds global cyclical bottoms with a correction greater than 80%.”
That doesn’t sound as promising. Maybe there’s more pain ahead, however… “Given the positive correlation between bitcoin and US equities since COVID, the US being the leading price mover of bitcoin suggests an emerging risk-on market environment,” ARK claims. Apparently, the US has been leading the bulls lately. Perfect. Bitcoin needs all the help it can get in these trying times.
Are We Leaving The Bear Market? Let’s Look At The Signs
- “Contagion in the crypto markets appears to be contained, as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital officially file for bankruptcy.”
Skelbdamas Celsius news, NewsBTC said “After weeks of conjecture and hearsay, Celsius’s legal counsels have formally informed regulators that the cryptocurrency lender has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.” Announcing the 3AC one, we said, “Crypto hedge fund 3 Arrows Capital is slated to be another pillar piece of 2022’s bear market headlines, joining the likes of brutal bear market moments that include Terra Luna’s downfall and CeFi’s drama.”
- „Atrodo, kad svertas atsipalaiduoja visoje kriptovaliutų ekosistemoje, atverdamas kelią atsigavimui“
Tai fenomenalu. Tegul tai tęsis ir toliau.
- “After trading below its investor cost basis for the first time since March 2020, bitcoin has reclaimed major support levels and is trading above its market cost basis.”
Puiki naujiena. Ar tai tada tikra? Ar taip greitai išeiname iš meškų rinkos?
BTC kainų diagrama 08-09-2022 Kraken | Šaltinis: BTC/USD TradingView.com
Other Factors, Miners And Lightning
- “Despite continued miner pressure, bitcoin’s economics are at equilibrium.”
Gerai, kai kurie kalnakasiai pardavė, o kiti atsisakė savo mašinų. Tačiau atrodo, kad slėgis atslūgsta, o saulė šviečia.
- “Bitcoin’s scaling solutions appear to be gaining momentum, as capacity on the Lightning Network reaches an all-time high.”
The Lightning Network went head to head with the bear market and didn’t even flinch. People are building and the L2 solution is bigger and better than ever. “LN capacity growth seems to accelerate during bear markets, marking a shift in sentiment from exuberance and speculation to testing and building longterm solutions for bitcoin.”
- „Atsižvelgiant į nuolatinį ekonominės veiklos, įskaitant užimtumą, mažėjimą, Federalinis rezervų bankas gali pasisukti antrąjį metų pusmetį.
Ar JAV yra recesijos viduryje? Nuomonių skiriasi, bet rezultatai yra vienodi. Žmonėms visame pasaulyje sunku. „Sumažėjimą daugiausia lėmė sumažėjusios atsargos, investicijos į gyvenamąją ir negyvenamą būstą bei valstybės išlaidos. Stiprūs recesijos signalai gali priversti FED pakeisti savo vanagišką poziciją“, – teigia ARK.
- „10 metų iždo obligacijų pajamingumas nesugebėjo išlaikyti didesnio nei 3% poslinkio, o dabar krenta, sukeldamas mažesnę konkurenciją kriptovaliutų turtui.
Government bonds were the safest investment for years and years. Nowadays, they’re not the new kid on the block anymore. Bitcoin is the new kid on the block. This bear market might not have been more than “brief deviation.” We might be back in business after all.
Teminis vaizdas Alexa nuo pixabay | Diagramos pagal TradingView
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/the-bear-market-correction-could-be-over-according-to-ark-reasoning-inside/